NK Slaven Belupo 9–1 Rudar: Result & Stats

NK Slaven Belupo

9 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Rudar

B. Mioc 82' (pen), 61'

F. Vlasic 72'

M. Caimacov 53'

B. Qestaj 47'

S. Nongoh 35'

T. Strkalj 30', 13'

M. Sakota 16'

A. Cepic 41'

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Arenaturist 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo76%

×Draw15%

Rudar10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Slaven BelupoExpected goals in this matchRudar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

0.89

NK Slaven Belupo

2.75

Rudar

0.89

NK Slaven Belupo creates 209% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

2.33

creates per match

0.18

1.60

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo

2.33

Rudar

0.18

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.60

Rudar

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

Rudar →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw

90%

NK Slaven Belupo or Rudar

85%

Draw or Rudar

24%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

55%

Rudar wins by 2+

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

93%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

75%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

51%

Rudar 1+ goals

59%

Rudar 2+ goals

22%

Rudar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

89%

Rudar (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Rudar away — creates 0.18, concedes 3.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 2.33 + Rudar defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.75

Rudar attack 0.18 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

76%

level

15%

Rudar scores more

10%

NK Slaven Belupo at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

16'

30'

35'

41'

A. Cepic

47'

B. Qestaj

53'

M. Caimacov

61'

B. Mioc

72'

F. Vlasic

82'

B. MiocPenalty

Statistics

NKRudar

Overview

2Corners1