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NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Osijek — HNL 2018

NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
NK Osijek
NK Osijek
5/4/2025HNLHNL · Round 33Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo35%
×Draw27%
NK Osijek38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Slaven Belupo
1.21
NK Osijek
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
NK Osijek
1.29

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Osijek
1.29

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par
NK Osijek+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

NK Osijek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw
62%
NK Slaven Belupo or NK Osijek
73%
Draw or NK Osijek
65%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
15%
NK Osijek wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
70%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
34%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
12%
NK Osijek 1+ goals
72%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
37%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
47%
NK Osijek (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.14 + NK Osijek defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

NK Osijek attack 1.29 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more
35%
level
27%
NK Osijek scores more
38%

NK Osijek at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Osijek

NK Osijek beat NK Slaven Belupo 4-1 in HNL on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Koprivnica.