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NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka — HNL 2018

NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
4/4/2026HNLHNL · Round 28Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo33%
×Draw27%
HNK Rijeka41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
HNK Rijeka
1.34

HNK Rijeka creates 15% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Rijeka
1.40

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Rijeka
1.19

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par
HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

HNK Rijeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw
59%
NK Slaven Belupo or HNK Rijeka
73%
Draw or HNK Rijeka
67%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
13%
HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
69%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
33%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
11%
HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
74%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
39%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
44%
HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.14 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

HNK Rijeka attack 1.40 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more
33%
level
27%
HNK Rijeka scores more
41%

HNK Rijeka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka

HNK Rijeka beat NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 in HNL on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas in Koprivnica.