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NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
12/5/2025HNLHNL · Round 16Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo39%
×Draw27%
HNK Gorica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.08

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.43

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par
HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw
66%
NK Slaven Belupo or HNK Gorica
73%
Draw or HNK Gorica
61%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
17%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
72%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
37%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
14%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
69%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
33%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
53%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.14 + HNK Gorica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

HNK Gorica attack 1.08 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more
39%
level
27%
HNK Gorica scores more
34%

NK Slaven Belupo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica

NK Slaven Belupo beat HNK Gorica 2-1 in HNL on December 5, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas in Koprivnica.