NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats

NK Slaven Belupo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

HNK Gorica

A. Jagušić 82'

A. Grgić 67'

M. Gashi 8'

12/13/2024

HNL · Round 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo44%

×Draw25%

HNK Gorica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Slaven BelupoExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.21

NK Slaven Belupo

1.52

HNK Gorica

1.21

NK Slaven Belupo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

1.41

creates per match

1.03

1.38

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.41

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.38

HNK Gorica

1.63

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.38scores more

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw

70%

NK Slaven Belupo or HNK Gorica

75%

Draw or HNK Gorica

56%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

22%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

78%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

45%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

20%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

70%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

34%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

59%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.41 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

44%

level

25%

HNK Gorica scores more

30%

NK Slaven Belupo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Jagušić

NK Slaven Belupo · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Ilija Nestorovski

8'

M. Gashi↳ J. Gurlica

32'

Luka Lučić

39'

M. Matković← D. Mikanović

49'

49'

57'

63'

64'

Mesaque Dju← M. Gashi

65'

I. Dolček← I. Ćubelić

67'

77'

82'

83'

84'

D. Štiglec← V. Majstorović

86'

M. Boras← A. Jagušić

86'

K. Butić← I. Lepinjica

90+6'

L. Bošnjak← M. Caimacov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NKHNK

Overview

60%Possession40%

22Total Shots11

6Corners6

16Fouls16

Shots

22Total Shots11

6On Target4

8Off Target2

8Blocked5

18Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

448Total Passes302

362Accurate Passes215

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1