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NK Osijek vs Rudes — HNL 2018

NK Osijek
NK Osijek
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rudes
Rudes
10/7/2023HNLHNL · Round 11Opus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

NK Osijek66%
×Draw21%
Rudes13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek
1.92
Rudes
0.71

NK Osijek creates 170% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

creates per match

NK Osijek
1.47
Rudes
0.61

allows per match

NK Osijek
0.82
Rudes
2.36

finishing

NK Osijek+0.00on par
Rudes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek ↓

Rudes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

NK Osijek or draw
87%
NK Osijek or Rudes
79%
Draw or Rudes
34%

Winning margin

NK Osijek wins by 2+
40%
Rudes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

NK Osijek 1+ goals
85%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
57%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
30%
Rudes 1+ goals
51%
Rudes 2+ goals
16%
Rudes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek (draw refunded)
83%
Rudes (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 144 matches

Rudes away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek attack 1.47 + Rudes defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.92

Rudes attack 0.61 + NK Osijek defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

NK Osijek scores more
66%
level
21%
Rudes scores more
13%

NK Osijek at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Osijek vs Rudes

NK Osijek beat Rudes 3-0 in HNL on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Opus Arena in Osijek.