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NK Osijek vs Inter Zapresic — HNL 2018

NK Osijek
NK Osijek
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
8/4/2019HNLHNL · Round 3Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

NK Osijek61%
×Draw22%
Inter Zapresic17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek
1.89
Inter Zapresic
0.87

NK Osijek creates 117% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 36 away

creates per match

NK Osijek
1.47
Inter Zapresic
0.92

allows per match

NK Osijek
0.82
Inter Zapresic
2.31

finishing

NK Osijek+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

NK Osijek or draw
83%
NK Osijek or Inter Zapresic
78%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
39%

Winning margin

NK Osijek wins by 2+
36%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

NK Osijek 1+ goals
85%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
56%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
29%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
58%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
22%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek (draw refunded)
78%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 144 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek attack 1.47 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.89

Inter Zapresic attack 0.92 + NK Osijek defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

NK Osijek scores more
61%
level
22%
Inter Zapresic scores more
17%

NK Osijek at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Osijek vs Inter Zapresic

NK Osijek beat Inter Zapresic 3-1 in HNL on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.