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NK Osijek vs HNK Rijeka — HNL 2018

NK Osijek
NK Osijek
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
12/2/2023HNLHNL · Round 17Opus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

NK Osijek42%
×Draw27%
HNK Rijeka31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek
1.33
HNK Rijeka
1.10

NK Osijek creates 21% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 143 away

creates per match

NK Osijek
1.47
HNK Rijeka
1.39

allows per match

NK Osijek
0.82
HNK Rijeka
1.20

finishing

NK Osijek+0.00on par
HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek ↓

HNK Rijeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

NK Osijek or draw
69%
NK Osijek or HNK Rijeka
73%
Draw or HNK Rijeka
58%

Winning margin

NK Osijek wins by 2+
19%
HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

NK Osijek 1+ goals
74%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
38%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
15%
HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
67%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
30%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek (draw refunded)
58%
HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 144 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek attack 1.47 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

HNK Rijeka attack 1.39 + NK Osijek defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NK Osijek scores more
42%
level
27%
HNK Rijeka scores more
31%

NK Osijek at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Osijek vs HNK Rijeka

NK Osijek and HNK Rijeka drew 0-0 in HNL on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Opus Arena in Osijek.