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HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek — HNL 2018

HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NK Osijek
NK Osijek
4/12/2026HNLHNL · Round 29Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Rijeka47%
×Draw25%
NK Osijek27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Rijeka
1.55
NK Osijek
1.11

HNK Rijeka creates 40% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

HNK Rijeka
1.81
NK Osijek
1.29

allows per match

HNK Rijeka
0.93
NK Osijek
1.29

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par
NK Osijek+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

NK Osijek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw
73%
HNK Rijeka or NK Osijek
75%
Draw or NK Osijek
53%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
24%
NK Osijek wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
79%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
46%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
20%
NK Osijek 1+ goals
67%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
30%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
64%
NK Osijek (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.81 + NK Osijek defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.55

NK Osijek attack 1.29 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more
47%
level
25%
NK Osijek scores more
27%

HNK Rijeka at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK Osijek

NK Osijek beat HNK Rijeka 2-0 in HNL on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion HNK Rijeka in Rijeka.