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NK Osijek vs Celje — Friendlies Clubs 2026

NK Osijek
NK Osijek
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Celje
Celje
1/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Lako

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

NK Osijek42%
×Draw25%
Celje32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek
1.48
Celje
1.25

NK Osijek creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

NK Osijek
1.47
Celje
1.17

allows per match

NK Osijek
1.33
Celje
1.50

finishing

NK Osijek+0.00on par
Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek ↓

Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

NK Osijek or draw
68%
NK Osijek or Celje
75%
Draw or Celje
58%

Winning margin

NK Osijek wins by 2+
21%
Celje wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

NK Osijek 1+ goals
77%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
43%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
19%
Celje 1+ goals
71%
Celje 2+ goals
36%
Celje 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek (draw refunded)
57%
Celje (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Celje away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek attack 1.47 + Celje defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Celje attack 1.17 + NK Osijek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NK Osijek scores more
42%
level
25%
Celje scores more
32%

NK Osijek at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NK Osijek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Osijek vs Celje

Celje beat NK Osijek 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lako in Novigrad.