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NK Osijek II vs Zagorec — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Zagorec
Zagorec
D. Babic 59'
M. Kanceljak 33'
M. Adzic 31'
3/5/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 17Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II44%
×Draw23%
Zagorec32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
1.73
Zagorec
1.44

NK Osijek II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Zagorec
1.00

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Zagorec
2.00

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Zagorec+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Zagorec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
68%
NK Osijek II or Zagorec
77%
Draw or Zagorec
56%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
23%
Zagorec wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
82%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
52%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
25%
Zagorec 1+ goals
76%
Zagorec 2+ goals
42%
Zagorec 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
58%
Zagorec (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Zagorec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Zagorec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zagorec attack 1.00 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
44%
level
23%
Zagorec scores more
32%

NK Osijek II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
M. Adzic
33'
M. Kanceljak
59'
D. Babic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: NK Osijek II 1–2 Zagorec

Zagorec beat NK Osijek II 2-1 in Second NL on March 5, 2023.

Goals: M. Adzic (31'), M. Kanceljak (33'), D. Babic (59').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.