NK Osijek II 1–0 Sibenik: Result & Stats | First NL

NK Osijek II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sibenik

3/1/2019

First NL · Round 14Stadion Gradski vrt (Osijek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

NK Osijek II37%

×Draw29%

Sibenik34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Osijek IIExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.05

NK Osijek II

1.11

Sibenik

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 40 away

1.37

creates per match

1.27

0.83

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

NK Osijek II

1.37

Sibenik

1.27

allows per match

NK Osijek II

0.83

Sibenik

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw

66%

NK Osijek II or Sibenik

71%

Draw or Sibenik

63%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+

15%

Sibenik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals

67%

NK Osijek II 2+ goals

30%

NK Osijek II 3+ goals

10%

Sibenik 1+ goals

65%

Sibenik 2+ goals

28%

Sibenik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)

52%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 54 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.37 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sibenik attack 1.27 + NK Osijek II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

NK Osijek II scores more

37%

level

29%

Sibenik scores more

34%

NK Osijek II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff