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NK Osijek II vs Medjimurje Cakovec — Second NL 2022

NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
A. Barisic 81'
D. Solic 74'
4/6/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 22Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

NK Osijek II52%
×Draw21%
Medjimurje Cakovec27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Osijek II
2.07
Medjimurje Cakovec
1.44

NK Osijek II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

NK Osijek II
1.47
Medjimurje Cakovec
1.00

allows per match

NK Osijek II
1.87
Medjimurje Cakovec
2.67

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par
Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw
73%
NK Osijek II or Medjimurje Cakovec
79%
Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec
48%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+
30%
Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals
87%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
61%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
34%
Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
76%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
42%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
66%
Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.47 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.07

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.00 + NK Osijek II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

NK Osijek II scores more
52%
level
21%
Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
27%

NK Osijek II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
D. Solic
81'
A. Barisic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Osijek II vs Medjimurje Cakovec

NK Osijek II beat Medjimurje Cakovec 2-0 in Second NL on April 6, 2023.

Goals: D. Solic (74'), A. Barisic (81').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.