NK Osijek II 2–1 Medjimurje Cakovec: Result & Stats

NK Osijek II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Medjimurje Cakovec

5/18/2019

First NL · Round 25Stadion Gradski vrt (Osijek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

NK Osijek II61%

×Draw22%

Medjimurje Cakovec17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Osijek IIExpected goals in this matchMedjimurje Cakovec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.86

NK Osijek II

1.86

Medjimurje Cakovec

0.86

NK Osijek II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 39 away

1.37

creates per match

0.90

0.83

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

NK Osijek II

1.37

Medjimurje Cakovec

0.90

allows per match

NK Osijek II

0.83

Medjimurje Cakovec

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Osijek II ↓

Medjimurje Cakovec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

NK Osijek II or draw

83%

NK Osijek II or Medjimurje Cakovec

78%

Draw or Medjimurje Cakovec

39%

Winning margin

NK Osijek II wins by 2+

36%

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

NK Osijek II 1+ goals

84%

NK Osijek II 2+ goals

55%

NK Osijek II 3+ goals

28%

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals

58%

Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals

21%

Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

NK Osijek II (draw refunded)

78%

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Osijek II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.83 · 54 matches

Medjimurje Cakovec away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Osijek II attack 1.37 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.86

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 0.90 + NK Osijek II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

NK Osijek II scores more

61%

level

22%

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more

17%

NK Osijek II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "NK Osijek II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff