NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 Sibenik: Result & Stats

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sibenik

I. Tuci 80'

4/21/2023

HNL · Round 30Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb36%

×Draw27%

Sibenik37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.23

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.21

Sibenik

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

1.16

creates per match

1.01

1.46

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.16

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.46

Sibenik

1.25

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.19scores more

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw

63%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or Sibenik

73%

Draw or Sibenik

64%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+

15%

Sibenik wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals

70%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals

34%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals

12%

Sibenik 1+ goals

71%

Sibenik 2+ goals

35%

Sibenik 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)

49%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.46 · 20 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.16 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sibenik attack 1.01 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more

36%

level

27%

Sibenik scores more

37%

Sibenik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

I. Miličević

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · D

8.7

Match Events

9'

Amer Hiroš

48'

Branimir Kalaica

62'

I. Tuci← S. Goričan

69'

M. Vranjković← B. Cipetić

69'

Iker Pozo← A. Hiroš

69'

D. Čop← I. Dolček

70'

M. Matić← M. Mina

77'

J. de Haas← J. Mersinaj

77'

M. Šotiček← A. Ibrahim

79'

D. Radonjić← K. Špeljak

80'

I. Tuci↳ I. Miličević

83'

J. Knežević← N. Đorić

90+2'

Nikola Čavlina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NKSibenik

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots4

8Corners4

8Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots4

5On Target1

6Off Target2

3Blocked1

11Inside Box4

3Outside Box0

Passing

61%Possession39%

510Total Passes326

407Accurate Passes223

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

HNL: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 Sibenik

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat Sibenik 1-0 in HNL on April 21, 2023.

Goals: I. Tuci (80').

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadion Kranjčevićeva in Zagreb.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Sibenik — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNL: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 Sibenik