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NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudar — Friendlies Clubs 2026

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rudar
Rudar
M. Vranjkovic 87'
I. Canjuga 69'
S. Gorican 28'
D. Cop 26'
1/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Arenaturist 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb82%
×Draw13%
Rudar6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2.67
Rudar
0.55

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 385% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2.00
Rudar
0.17

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.92
Rudar
3.33

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw
94%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or Rudar
87%
Draw or Rudar
18%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
61%
Rudar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
93%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
74%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
49%
Rudar 1+ goals
42%
Rudar 2+ goals
11%
Rudar 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
94%
Rudar (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Rudar away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 2.00 + Rudar defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Rudar attack 0.17 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
82%
level
13%
Rudar scores more
6%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
D. Cop
28'
S. Gorican
69'
I. Canjuga
87'
M. Vranjkovic
NK
Rudar
S. Čabraja
Manager: S. Čabraja
N. Vlahović
Manager: N. Vlahović

Match Recap: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudar

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat Rudar 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2024.

Goals: D. Cop (26'), S. Gorican (28'), I. Canjuga (69'), M. Vranjkovic (87').

The match was played at Arenaturist 1 in Medulin.