NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–0 Istra 1961: Result & Stats

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Istra 1961

5/3/2025

HNL · Round 33Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb50%

×Draw25%

Istra 196124%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Lokomotiva ZagrebExpected goals in this matchIstra 1961

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.56

Istra 1961

1.00

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 56% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.44

creates per match

0.81

1.19

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.44

Istra 1961

0.81

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.19

Istra 1961

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Istra 1961+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

Istra 1961 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw

76%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or Istra 1961

75%

Draw or Istra 1961

50%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+

26%

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals

79%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals

46%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals

21%

Istra 1961 1+ goals

63%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

26%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)

67%

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.44 + Istra 1961 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Istra 1961 attack 0.81 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more

50%

level

25%

Istra 1961 scores more

24%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff