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NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split — HNL 2018

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
5/16/2026HNLHNL · Round 35Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb36%
×Draw27%
HNK Hajduk Split38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.27
HNK Hajduk Split
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
HNK Hajduk Split
1.43

allows per match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.19
HNK Hajduk Split
1.09

finishing

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ↓

HNK Hajduk Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw
62%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or HNK Hajduk Split
73%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split
64%

Winning margin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
16%
HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
72%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
36%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
14%
HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
73%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
38%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
49%
HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

HNK Hajduk Split away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.44 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.43 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
36%
level
27%
HNK Hajduk Split scores more
38%

HNK Hajduk Split at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Hajduk Split drew 1-1 in HNL on May 16, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.