NK Domzale 1–3 Olimpija Ljubljana: Result & Stats

NK Domzale

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Olimpija Ljubljana

8/10/2025

1. SNL · Round 4Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

NK Domzale31%

×Draw26%

Olimpija Ljubljana43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK DomzaleExpected goals in this matchOlimpija Ljubljana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.44

NK Domzale

1.20

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.44

Olimpija Ljubljana creates 20% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 124 away

1.30

creates per match

1.49

1.39

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

NK Domzale

1.30

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.49

allows per match

NK Domzale

1.39

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NK Domzale+0.00on par

Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Domzale ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

NK Domzale or draw

57%

NK Domzale or Olimpija Ljubljana

74%

Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana

69%

Winning margin

NK Domzale wins by 2+

13%

Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

NK Domzale 1+ goals

70%

NK Domzale 2+ goals

34%

NK Domzale 3+ goals

12%

Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals

76%

Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals

42%

Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

NK Domzale (draw refunded)

42%

Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Domzale at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.39 · 118 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Domzale attack 1.30 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.49 + NK Domzale defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

NK Domzale scores more

31%

level

26%

Olimpija Ljubljana scores more

43%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff