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NJS III vs TuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

NJS III
NJS III
FT
0 – 2
TuPS
TuPS
3/4/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKlaukkalan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NJS III21%
×Draw21%
TuPS58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NJS III
1.17
TuPS
2.10

TuPS creates 79% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

NJS III
1.33
TuPS
2.88

allows per match

NJS III
1.33
TuPS
1.00

finishing

NJS III+0.00on par
TuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJS III ↓

TuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

NJS III or draw
42%
NJS III or TuPS
79%
Draw or TuPS
79%

Winning margin

NJS III wins by 2+
8%
TuPS wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

NJS III 1+ goals
69%
NJS III 2+ goals
33%
NJS III 3+ goals
11%
TuPS 1+ goals
88%
TuPS 2+ goals
62%
TuPS 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

NJS III (draw refunded)
26%
TuPS (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJS III at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

TuPS away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJS III attack 1.33 + TuPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

TuPS attack 2.88 + NJS III defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

NJS III scores more
21%
level
21%
TuPS scores more
58%

TuPS at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "TuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: NJS III 0–2 TuPS

TuPS beat NJS III 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Klaukkalan tekonurmi in Nurmijärvi.