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NJS III vs Lahti Akatemia — Suomen Cup 2018

NJS III
NJS III
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lahti Akatemia
Lahti Akatemia
5/12/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundKlaukkalan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NJS III15%
×Draw17%
Lahti Akatemia69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NJS III
1.17
Lahti Akatemia
2.67

Lahti Akatemia creates 128% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

NJS III
1.33
Lahti Akatemia
4.00

allows per match

NJS III
1.33
Lahti Akatemia
1.00

finishing

NJS III+0.00on par
Lahti Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJS III ↓

Lahti Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

NJS III or draw
31%
NJS III or Lahti Akatemia
83%
Draw or Lahti Akatemia
85%

Winning margin

NJS III wins by 2+
5%
Lahti Akatemia wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

NJS III 1+ goals
69%
NJS III 2+ goals
33%
NJS III 3+ goals
11%
Lahti Akatemia 1+ goals
93%
Lahti Akatemia 2+ goals
74%
Lahti Akatemia 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

NJS III (draw refunded)
18%
Lahti Akatemia (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJS III at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Lahti Akatemia away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJS III attack 1.33 + Lahti Akatemia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lahti Akatemia attack 4.00 + NJS III defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

NJS III scores more
15%
level
17%
Lahti Akatemia scores more
69%

Lahti Akatemia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Lahti Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NJS III vs Lahti Akatemia

Lahti Akatemia beat NJS III 2-1 in Suomen Cup on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Klaukkalan tekonurmi in Nurmijärvi.