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Njardvik vs KFG — Cup 2026

Njardvik
Njardvik
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
KFG
KFG
S. S. Ingibjargarson 90+4'
M. Matthiasson 71', 38'
E. Einarsson 62'
M. McAusland 23'
J. Johannsson 55'
P. M. Thorleksson 13'
4/22/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundNettóhöllin gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Njardvik75%
×Draw13%
KFG12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Njardvik
3.73
KFG
1.55

Njardvik creates 141% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Njardvik
3.71
KFG
2.25

allows per match

Njardvik
0.86
KFG
3.75

finishing

Njardvik+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Njardvik ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Njardvik or draw
88%
Njardvik or KFG
87%
Draw or KFG
25%

Winning margin

Njardvik wins by 2+
57%
KFG wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Njardvik 1+ goals
97%
Njardvik 2+ goals
88%
Njardvik 3+ goals
69%
KFG 1+ goals
79%
KFG 2+ goals
46%
KFG 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Njardvik (draw refunded)
86%
KFG (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Njardvik at home — creates 3.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

KFG away — creates 2.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Njardvik attack 3.71 + KFG defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.73

KFG attack 2.25 + Njardvik defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Njardvik scores more
75%
level
13%
KFG scores more
12%

Njardvik at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Njardvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
P. M. Thorleksson
23'
M. McAusland
38'
M. Matthiasson
55'
J. Johannsson
62'
E. Einarsson
71'
M. Matthiasson
90+4'
S. S. Ingibjargarson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Njardvik vs KFG

Njardvik beat KFG 5-2 in Cup on April 22, 2022.

Goals: P. M. Thorleksson (13'), M. McAusland (23'), M. Matthiasson (38', 71'), J. Johannsson (55'), E. Einarsson (62'), S. S. Ingibjargarson (90+4').

The match was played at Nettóhöllin gervigras in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.