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Njardvik vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Njardvik
Njardvik
FT
5 – 4
HT: 3 – 3
Grindavik
Grindavik
E. Sigurbjornsson 76'
S. Markusson 50'
L. Fernandes 37', 26'
A. Einarsson 12'
G. O. Gunnleifsson 63', 41'
R. Eysteinsson 16'
S. Fridriksson 5'
7/10/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Njardvik52%
×Draw21%
Grindavik27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Njardvik
2.19
Grindavik
1.54

Njardvik creates 42% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Njardvik
2.18
Grindavik
1.71

allows per match

Njardvik
1.36
Grindavik
2.19

finishing

Njardvik+0.00on par
Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Njardvik ↓

Grindavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Njardvik or draw
73%
Njardvik or Grindavik
79%
Draw or Grindavik
48%

Winning margin

Njardvik wins by 2+
31%
Grindavik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Njardvik 1+ goals
89%
Njardvik 2+ goals
64%
Njardvik 3+ goals
37%
Grindavik 1+ goals
79%
Grindavik 2+ goals
45%
Grindavik 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Njardvik (draw refunded)
66%
Grindavik (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Njardvik at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Njardvik attack 2.18 + Grindavik defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.19

Grindavik attack 1.71 + Njardvik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Njardvik scores more
52%
level
21%
Grindavik scores more
27%

Njardvik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Njardvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Fridriksson
12'
A. Einarsson
16'
R. Eysteinsson
26'
L. Fernandes
37'
L. Fernandes
41'
G. O. Gunnleifsson
50'
S. Markusson
53'
E. Runarsson
59'
63'
G. O. Gunnleifsson
64'
B. Bjarkason← S. Thasaphong
69'
D. Reinhardsson← G. Smit
75'
M. Thorfinnsson← E. Runarsson
75'
C. Alexandersson
76'
E. Sigurbjornsson
78'
V. Hakonarson
80'
V. Johannsson← L. Fernandes
83'
A. Hammer← R. Eysteinsson
83'
L. Olafsson← V. Hakonarson
89'
F. F. Gudmundsson← S. Fridriksson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Njardvik 5–4 Grindavik

Njardvik beat Grindavik 5-4 in 1. Deild on July 10, 2026.

Goals: S. Fridriksson (5'), A. Einarsson (12'), R. Eysteinsson (16'), L. Fernandes (26', 37'), G. O. Gunnleifsson (41', 63'), S. Markusson (50'), E. Sigurbjornsson (76').