NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Washington Spirit W — NWSL Women 2026
NWSL Women·2026📍Sports Illustrated Stadium- Date
- Jul 16, 2026, 12:00 AM
- Tournament
- NWSL Women · Group Stage
- Venue
- Sports Illustrated Stadium
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
NJ/NY Gotham FC W29%
Washington Spirit W38%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Washington Spirit W creates 22% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under74
- Over26
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No66
- Yes34
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓
Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches
Washington Spirit W away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 0.75 + Washington Spirit W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80
Washington Spirit W attack 1.21 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Washington Spirit W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Washington Spirit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Orlando Pride WNJ/NY Gotham FC W
North Carolina Courage W
Kansas City W
Denver Summit W
Portland Thorns WWashington Spirit W
Seattle Reign FC W
Utah Royals W
Houston Dash W
San Diego Wave W
Angel City W
Bay FC W
Chicago Red Stars W
Boston Legacy W
Racing Louisville WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
NJ/NY Gotham FC W host Washington Spirit W on Thursday, 16 July 2026 at 00:00. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2026/2027 season.
NWSL Women: NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1–0 Washington Spirit W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W beat Washington Spirit W 1-0 in NWSL Women on July 16, 2026.
Goals: R. Lavelle (37').
NJ/NY Gotham FC W controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 17.
The match was played at Sports Illustrated Stadium.