NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 67+ matches
NJ/NY Gotham FC W45%
Racing Louisville W28%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 36% more chances
Season form · 84 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches
Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.73 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.08 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41
Racing Louisville W attack 1.03 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Angel City WNJ/NY Gotham FC W
Bay FC W
Boston Legacy W
Washington Spirit W
Kansas City W
San Diego Wave W
Denver Summit W
Portland Thorns W
Seattle Reign FC W
Orlando Pride W
Utah Royals W
Chicago Red Stars W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash WRacing Louisville WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
NJ/NY Gotham FC W host Racing Louisville W on Sunday, 27 August 2023 at 21:30. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Racing Louisville W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W and Racing Louisville W drew 0-0 in NWSL Women on August 27, 2023.
The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey.