NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Angel City W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Preview

16:00

Angel City W

10/4/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageSports Illustrated Stadium

Big match

40%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

model favours

40%28%32%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

under 2.5 goals

48%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W40%

×Draw28%

Angel City W32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NJ/NY Gotham FC WExpected goals in this matchAngel City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.10

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.25

Angel City W

1.10

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 55 away

1.08

creates per match

1.15

1.05

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.08

Angel City W

1.15

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.05

Angel City W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

Angel City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw

68%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or Angel City W

72%

Draw or Angel City W

60%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

17%

Angel City W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

71%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

36%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

13%

Angel City W 1+ goals

67%

Angel City W 2+ goals

30%

Angel City W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

55%

Angel City W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.08 + Angel City W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Angel City W attack 1.15 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

40%

level

28%

Angel City W scores more

32%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 3 in a row
NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 6 of the last 8 meetings
NJ/NY Gotham FC W raise their game against the top half — 42% wins vs the upper half, only 41% vs the lower
Top-of-the-table clash — NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2 vs Angel City W 1
Angel City W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
69% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals