NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2–1 Angel City W: Result & Stats

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Angel City W

6/8/2024

NWSL Women · Round 9Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W40%

×Draw28%

Angel City W32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NJ/NY Gotham FC WExpected goals in this matchAngel City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.10

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.25

Angel City W

1.10

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 55 away

1.08

creates per match

1.15

1.05

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.08

Angel City W

1.15

allows per match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

1.05

Angel City W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NJ/NY Gotham FC W ↓

Angel City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or draw

68%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W or Angel City W

72%

Draw or Angel City W

60%

Winning margin

NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+

17%

Angel City W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals

71%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals

36%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals

13%

Angel City W 1+ goals

67%

Angel City W 2+ goals

30%

Angel City W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)

55%

Angel City W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.08 + Angel City W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Angel City W attack 1.15 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more

40%

level

28%

Angel City W scores more

32%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff