Nizwa 2–0 Oman Club: Result & Stats

Nizwa

FT

2 – 0

Oman Club

4/7/2022

Professional League · Round 18Nizwa Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nizwa31%

×Draw30%

Oman Club39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NizwaExpected goals in this matchOman Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.13

Nizwa

0.98

Oman Club

1.13

Oman Club creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

0.84

creates per match

1.04

1.21

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Nizwa

0.84

Oman Club

1.04

allows per match

Nizwa

1.21

Oman Club

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizwa+0.00on par

Oman Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizwa ↓

Oman Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nizwa or draw

61%

Nizwa or Oman Club

70%

Draw or Oman Club

69%

Winning margin

Nizwa wins by 2+

11%

Oman Club wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nizwa 1+ goals

62%

Nizwa 2+ goals

26%

Nizwa 3+ goals

8%

Oman Club 1+ goals

68%

Oman Club 2+ goals

31%

Oman Club 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nizwa (draw refunded)

45%

Oman Club (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizwa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Oman Club away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizwa attack 0.84 + Oman Club defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Oman Club attack 1.04 + Nizwa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nizwa scores more

31%

level

30%

Oman Club scores more

39%

Oman Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oman Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff