Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nizwa vs Dhofar — Professional League 2019

Nizwa
Nizwa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dhofar
Dhofar
3/7/2022Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 15Nizwa Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nizwa28%
×Draw30%
Dhofar42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizwa
0.88
Dhofar
1.14

Dhofar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 69 away

creates per match

Nizwa
0.84
Dhofar
1.07

allows per match

Nizwa
1.21
Dhofar
0.91

finishing

Nizwa+0.00on par
Dhofar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizwa ↓

Dhofar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nizwa or draw
58%
Nizwa or Dhofar
70%
Draw or Dhofar
72%

Winning margin

Nizwa wins by 2+
9%
Dhofar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nizwa 1+ goals
59%
Nizwa 2+ goals
22%
Nizwa 3+ goals
6%
Dhofar 1+ goals
68%
Dhofar 2+ goals
32%
Dhofar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nizwa (draw refunded)
40%
Dhofar (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizwa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Dhofar away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizwa attack 0.84 + Dhofar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Dhofar attack 1.07 + Nizwa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nizwa scores more
28%
level
30%
Dhofar scores more
42%

Dhofar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dhofar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Nizwa 0–1 Dhofar

Dhofar beat Nizwa 1-0 in Professional League on March 7, 2022.

The match was played at Nizwa Sports Complex in Nizwa.