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Nizwa vs Al Seeb — Professional League 2019

Nizwa
Nizwa
FT
0 – 0
Al Seeb
Al Seeb
10/30/2021Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 4Nizwa Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nizwa17%
×Draw26%
Al Seeb56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizwa
0.70
Al Seeb
1.50

Al Seeb creates 114% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

creates per match

Nizwa
0.84
Al Seeb
1.80

allows per match

Nizwa
1.21
Al Seeb
0.56

finishing

Nizwa+0.00on par
Al Seeb+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizwa ↓

Al Seeb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nizwa or draw
44%
Nizwa or Al Seeb
74%
Draw or Al Seeb
83%

Winning margin

Nizwa wins by 2+
5%
Al Seeb wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Nizwa 1+ goals
50%
Nizwa 2+ goals
16%
Nizwa 3+ goals
3%
Al Seeb 1+ goals
78%
Al Seeb 2+ goals
44%
Al Seeb 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nizwa (draw refunded)
24%
Al Seeb (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizwa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Al Seeb away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.56 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizwa attack 0.84 + Al Seeb defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.70

Al Seeb attack 1.80 + Nizwa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nizwa scores more
17%
level
26%
Al Seeb scores more
56%

Al Seeb at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Seeb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nizwa 0 – 0 Al Seeb

Nizwa and Al Seeb drew 0-0 in Professional League on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Nizwa Sports Complex in Nizwa.