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Nizwa vs Al-Nahda — Professional League 2019

Nizwa
Nizwa
FT
2 – 1
Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
12/17/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 1Nizwa Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nizwa24%
×Draw30%
Al-Nahda46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizwa
0.81
Al-Nahda
1.23

Al-Nahda creates 52% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Nizwa
0.84
Al-Nahda
1.25

allows per match

Nizwa
1.21
Al-Nahda
0.79

finishing

Nizwa+0.00on par
Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizwa ↓

Al-Nahda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nizwa or draw
54%
Nizwa or Al-Nahda
70%
Draw or Al-Nahda
76%

Winning margin

Nizwa wins by 2+
8%
Al-Nahda wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nizwa 1+ goals
56%
Nizwa 2+ goals
19%
Nizwa 3+ goals
5%
Al-Nahda 1+ goals
71%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
35%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nizwa (draw refunded)
35%
Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizwa at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Al-Nahda away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizwa attack 0.84 + Al-Nahda defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Al-Nahda attack 1.25 + Nizwa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nizwa scores more
24%
level
30%
Al-Nahda scores more
46%

Al-Nahda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Nahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Nizwa 2–1 Al-Nahda

Nizwa beat Al-Nahda 2-1 in Professional League on December 17, 2020.

The match was played at Nizwa Sports Complex in Nizwa.