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Nizhny Novgorod vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
Preview
16:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
11/21/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Sovcombank Arena
41%
Torpedo Moskva
model favours
32%27%41%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod32%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Moskva41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.14
Torpedo Moskva
1.32

Torpedo Moskva creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 41 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.29
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Torpedo Moskva
0.98

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
59%
Nizhny Novgorod or Torpedo Moskva
73%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
68%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
13%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
68%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
32%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
73%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
38%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
44%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.29 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
32%
level
27%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
41%

Torpedo Moskva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Novgorod
WLWW
Moskva
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nizhny Novgorod host Torpedo Moskva

November 21, 2026: Nizhny Novgorod take on Torpedo Moskva in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nizhny Novgorod host Torpedo Moskva at Sovcombank Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.