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Nizhny Novgorod vs PFC Sochi — First League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
3/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion Nizhny Novgorod (Nizhniy Novgorod)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod39%
×Draw28%
PFC Sochi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.23
PFC Sochi
1.11

Nizhny Novgorod creates 11% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 38 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.39
PFC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
0.77
PFC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
67%
Nizhny Novgorod or PFC Sochi
72%
Draw or PFC Sochi
61%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
17%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
71%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
35%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
13%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
67%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
30%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
54%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.39 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
39%
level
28%
PFC Sochi scores more
33%

Nizhny Novgorod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs PFC Sochi

Nizhny Novgorod and PFC Sochi drew 0-0 in First League on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod (Nizhniy Novgorod).