Nizhny Novgorod vs Luch-Energiya

Nizhny Novgorod

CANC

00:00

Luch-Energiya

4/8/2020

First League · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod48%

×Draw29%

Luch-Energiya23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchLuch-Energiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.81

Nizhny Novgorod

1.31

Luch-Energiya

0.81

Nizhny Novgorod creates 62% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 40 away

1.39

creates per match

0.85

0.77

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.39

Luch-Energiya

0.85

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.77

Luch-Energiya

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Luch-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Luch-Energiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

77%

Nizhny Novgorod or Luch-Energiya

71%

Draw or Luch-Energiya

52%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

23%

Luch-Energiya wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

73%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

38%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

14%

Luch-Energiya 1+ goals

56%

Luch-Energiya 2+ goals

19%

Luch-Energiya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

68%

Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

Luch-Energiya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.39 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Luch-Energiya attack 0.85 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

48%

level

29%

Luch-Energiya scores more

23%

Nizhny Novgorod at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff