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Nizhny Novgorod vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
8/16/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod44%
×Draw28%
FK Neftekhimik27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
0.95

Nizhny Novgorod creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 123 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.39
FK Neftekhimik
1.12

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
0.77
FK Neftekhimik
1.19

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
73%
Nizhny Novgorod or FK Neftekhimik
72%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
56%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
20%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
72%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
37%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
14%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
61%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
25%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
62%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.77 · 56 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.39 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
44%
level
28%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
27%

Nizhny Novgorod at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Nizhny Novgorod 0–1 FK Neftekhimik

FK Neftekhimik beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 in First League on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.