Nizhny Novgorod 1–2 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Fakel Voronezh

M. Sultonov 45'

R. Akbashev 31'

A. Razborov 7'

3/10/2021

First League · Round 29Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod45%

×Draw27%

Fakel Voronezh27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.99

Nizhny Novgorod

1.36

Fakel Voronezh

0.99

Nizhny Novgorod creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

1.40

creates per match

1.22

0.77

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.40

Fakel Voronezh

1.22

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.77

Fakel Voronezh

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

73%

Nizhny Novgorod or Fakel Voronezh

73%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

55%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

21%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

74%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

39%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

16%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

63%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

26%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

62%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.77 · 57 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.32 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.40 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.22 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

45%

level

27%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

27%

Nizhny Novgorod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Razborov

31'

R. Akbashev

32'

Leo Goglichidze

34'

T. Suleymanov← A. Shumskikh

37'

A. Popov← L. Goglichidze

43'

Sergei Zuykov

45'

M. Sultonov

62'

P. Komolov← I. Gorbunov

62'

V. Cherov← I. Mazurov

74'

M. Maksimov← A. Razborov

78'

D. Korobov← V. Masternoy

80'

I. Berkovskiy← M. Sultonov

Nizhny4-3-3

Fakel5-3-2

22

⚽

▼

Razborov

15

Nikitin

11

▼

Mazurov

34

Dmitriev

88

▼

Masternoy

10

⚽

33

92

3

39

1

1

91

▼

Goglichid

24

Gotsuk

23

Zuykov

5

▼

78

41

22

10

17

▼

Gorbunov

14

⚽

▼

Sultonov

Manager: R. Evdokimov

34'▲T. Suleymanov←▼A. Shumskikh

37'▲A. Popov←▼L. Goglichidze

62'▲P. Komolov←▼I. Gorbunov

80'▲I. Berkovskiy←▼M. Sultonov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

93Suleymanov8Popov20Komolov88Berkovskiy3Ediev6Gashchenkov7Malyarov9Galadzhan11Temnikov61Stavpets90Smirnov99Sysuev

Manager: O. Vasilenko

62'▲V. Cherov←▼I. Mazurov

74'▲M. Maksimov←▼A. Razborov

78'▲D. Korobov←▼V. Masternoy

Fakel Voronezh substitutes

2Cherov19Maksimov87Korobov4Dashaev6Shepilov25Smirnov26Pochivalin30Kortnev56Sedov77Petrusev

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel Voronezh

Fakel Voronezh beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 in First League on March 10, 2021.

Goals: A. Razborov (7'), R. Akbashev (31'), M. Sultonov (45').

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.

Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel Voronezh