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Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
CANC
14:00
Fakel
Fakel
1/27/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod38%
×Draw28%
Fakel35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.24
Fakel
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.56
Fakel
1.27

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.06
Fakel
0.91

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Fakel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
65%
Nizhny Novgorod or Fakel
72%
Draw or Fakel
62%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
16%
Fakel wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
71%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
35%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
13%
Fakel 1+ goals
69%
Fakel 2+ goals
33%
Fakel 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
52%
Fakel (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Fakel away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.56 + Fakel defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fakel attack 1.27 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
38%
level
28%
Fakel scores more
35%

Nizhny Novgorod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nizhny Novgorod vs Fakel — Match Preview

Nizhny Novgorod face Fakel on January 27, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.