Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula

Nizhny Novgorod

Preview

16:00

Arsenal Tula

11/1/2026

First League · Round 16Sovcombank Arena

45%

Nizhny Novgorod

model favours

45%27%28%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

48%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod45%

×Draw27%

Arsenal Tula28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.01

Nizhny Novgorod

1.38

Arsenal Tula

1.01

Nizhny Novgorod creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 41 away

1.64

creates per match

0.93

1.09

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.64

Arsenal Tula

0.93

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.09

Arsenal Tula

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Arsenal Tula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

72%

Nizhny Novgorod or Arsenal Tula

73%

Draw or Arsenal Tula

55%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

22%

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

75%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

40%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

16%

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

64%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

27%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

62%

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.64 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Arsenal Tula attack 0.93 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

45%

level

27%

Arsenal Tula scores more

28%

Nizhny Novgorod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Novgorod

WLWW

Tula

WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff