Arsenal Tula 0–2 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod

6/1/2024

Premier League · Relegation RoundStadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Arsenal Tula49%

×Draw25%

Nizhny Novgorod25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.04

Arsenal Tula

1.55

Nizhny Novgorod

1.04

Arsenal Tula creates 49% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 78 away

1.43

creates per match

0.78

1.31

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.43

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

1.31

Nizhny Novgorod

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

75%

Arsenal Tula or Nizhny Novgorod

75%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

51%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

25%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

79%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

46%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

20%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

65%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

28%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

66%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.43 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

49%

level

25%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

25%

Arsenal Tula at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff