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Nizhny Novgorod vs Akhmat — Premier League 2018

Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Akhmat
Akhmat
9/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod38%
×Draw27%
Akhmat36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod
1.31
Akhmat
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 121 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.15
Akhmat
1.01

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod
1.53
Akhmat
1.47

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw
64%
Nizhny Novgorod or Akhmat
73%
Draw or Akhmat
62%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
17%
Akhmat wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
73%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
38%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
14%
Akhmat 1+ goals
72%
Akhmat 2+ goals
36%
Akhmat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
51%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 78 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.15 + Akhmat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Akhmat attack 1.01 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more
38%
level
27%
Akhmat scores more
36%

Nizhny Novgorod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nizhny Novgorod 1–2 Akhmat

Akhmat beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 in Premier League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.