Nizhny Novgorod U19 1–2 UOR №5 U20: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

UOR №5 U20

10/25/2024

Youth Championship · Relegation Round - 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod U1947%

×Draw22%

UOR №5 U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny Novgorod U19Expected goals in this matchUOR №5 U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.53

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.92

UOR №5 U20

1.53

Nizhny Novgorod U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 65 away

1.22

creates per match

1.40

1.66

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.22

UOR №5 U20

1.40

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.66

UOR №5 U20

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod U19 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod U19 or draw

69%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 or UOR №5 U20

78%

Draw or UOR №5 U20

53%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+

26%

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals

85%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals

57%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals

30%

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals

78%

UOR №5 U20 2+ goals

45%

UOR №5 U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)

60%

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 74 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.22 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.92

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more

47%

level

22%

UOR №5 U20 scores more

31%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff