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Nizhny Novgorod U19 vs Rubin Kazan U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Nizhny Novgorod U19
Nizhny Novgorod U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rubin Kazan U20
Rubin Kazan U20
10/4/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Relegation Round - 6Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod U1938%
×Draw24%
Rubin Kazan U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.48
Rubin Kazan U20
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.22
Rubin Kazan U20
1.32

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.66
Rubin Kazan U20
1.75

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par
Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod U19 ↓

Rubin Kazan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod U19 or draw
62%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 or Rubin Kazan U20
76%
Draw or Rubin Kazan U20
62%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+
18%
Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals
77%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals
43%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals
19%
Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals
77%
Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals
44%
Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 74 matches

Rubin Kazan U20 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.22 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.32 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more
38%
level
24%
Rubin Kazan U20 scores more
38%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Nizhny Novgorod U19 0–3 Rubin Kazan U20

Rubin Kazan U20 beat Nizhny Novgorod U19 3-0 in Youth Championship on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.