Nizhny Novgorod U19 2–0 Orenburg U19

Nizhny Novgorod U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orenburg U19

8/26/2022

Youth Championship · Round 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod U1954%

×Draw22%

Orenburg U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny Novgorod U19Expected goals in this matchOrenburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.23

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.94

Orenburg U19

1.23

Nizhny Novgorod U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 38 away

1.22

creates per match

0.79

1.66

allows per match

2.66

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.22

Orenburg U19

0.79

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19

1.66

Orenburg U19

2.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par

Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod U19 or draw

76%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 or Orenburg U19

78%

Draw or Orenburg U19

46%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+

31%

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals

86%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals

58%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals

30%

Orenburg U19 1+ goals

71%

Orenburg U19 2+ goals

35%

Orenburg U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 74 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.22 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.94

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more

54%

level

22%

Orenburg U19 scores more

24%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff