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Nizhny Novgorod U19 vs Krasnodar U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Nizhny Novgorod U19
Nizhny Novgorod U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
D. Nikonorov 76'
12/1/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 19Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod U1927%
×Draw23%
Krasnodar U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.25
Krasnodar U19
1.80

Krasnodar U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 78 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.22
Krasnodar U19
1.94

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.66
Krasnodar U19
1.27

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par
Krasnodar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod U19 ↓

Krasnodar U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod U19 or draw
50%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 or Krasnodar U19
77%
Draw or Krasnodar U19
73%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+
11%
Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals
71%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals
36%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals
13%
Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
83%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
54%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 74 matches

Krasnodar U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.22 + Krasnodar U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Krasnodar U19 attack 1.94 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more
27%
level
23%
Krasnodar U19 scores more
50%

Krasnodar U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
D. Nikonorov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Nizhny Novgorod U19 1–0 Krasnodar U19

Nizhny Novgorod U19 beat Krasnodar U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on December 1, 2023.

Goals: D. Nikonorov (76').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.