Nizhny Novgorod II 2–0 Orenburg II: Result & Stats

Nizhny Novgorod II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orenburg II

6/22/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod II45%

×Draw26%

Orenburg II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny Novgorod IIExpected goals in this matchOrenburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.15

Nizhny Novgorod II

1.48

Orenburg II

1.15

Nizhny Novgorod II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

1.08

creates per match

0.83

1.46

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod II

1.08

Orenburg II

0.83

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod II

1.46

Orenburg II

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Orenburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod II ↓

Orenburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod II or draw

71%

Nizhny Novgorod II or Orenburg II

74%

Draw or Orenburg II

55%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+

22%

Orenburg II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals

77%

Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals

43%

Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals

19%

Orenburg II 1+ goals

68%

Orenburg II 2+ goals

32%

Orenburg II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)

60%

Orenburg II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Orenburg II away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 1.08 + Orenburg II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.48

Orenburg II attack 0.83 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more

45%

level

26%

Orenburg II scores more

29%

Nizhny Novgorod II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff