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Nizhny Novgorod II vs Nosta — Second League - Group 4 2020

Nizhny Novgorod II
Nizhny Novgorod II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nosta
Nosta
4/20/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod II44%
×Draw26%
Nosta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.46
Nosta
1.18

Nizhny Novgorod II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 85 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.08
Nosta
0.89

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.46
Nosta
1.84

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par
Nosta+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod II ↓

Nosta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod II or draw
69%
Nizhny Novgorod II or Nosta
74%
Draw or Nosta
56%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+
21%
Nosta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals
77%
Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals
43%
Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals
18%
Nosta 1+ goals
69%
Nosta 2+ goals
33%
Nosta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)
59%
Nosta (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Nosta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.84 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 1.08 + Nosta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nosta attack 0.89 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more
44%
level
26%
Nosta scores more
31%

Nizhny Novgorod II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod II vs Nosta

Nizhny Novgorod II beat Nosta 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.