Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nizhny Novgorod II vs Dinamo Barnaul — Second League - Group 4 2020

Nizhny Novgorod II
Nizhny Novgorod II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
8/3/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod II43%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Barnaul32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.56
Dinamo Barnaul
1.32

Nizhny Novgorod II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.08
Dinamo Barnaul
1.18

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.46
Dinamo Barnaul
2.05

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par
Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod II ↓

Dinamo Barnaul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod II or draw
68%
Nizhny Novgorod II or Dinamo Barnaul
75%
Draw or Dinamo Barnaul
57%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+
21%
Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals
79%
Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals
46%
Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)
57%
Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Dinamo Barnaul away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 1.08 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.18 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more
43%
level
25%
Dinamo Barnaul scores more
32%

Nizhny Novgorod II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Nizhny Novgorod II 1–1 Dinamo Barnaul

Nizhny Novgorod II and Dinamo Barnaul drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.