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Nizhny Novgorod II vs Akron II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Nizhny Novgorod II
Nizhny Novgorod II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Akron II
Akron II
9/21/2024Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod II48%
×Draw24%
Akron II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.65
Akron II
1.18

Nizhny Novgorod II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 42 away

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.08
Akron II
0.90

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod II
1.46
Akron II
2.21

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par
Akron II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod II ↓

Akron II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod II or draw
73%
Nizhny Novgorod II or Akron II
76%
Draw or Akron II
52%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+
25%
Akron II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals
81%
Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals
49%
Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals
23%
Akron II 1+ goals
69%
Akron II 2+ goals
33%
Akron II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)
64%
Akron II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Akron II away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 1.08 + Akron II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.65

Akron II attack 0.90 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more
48%
level
24%
Akron II scores more
27%

Nizhny Novgorod II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod II vs Akron II

Akron II beat Nizhny Novgorod II 4-2 in Second League - Group 4 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.