Niva 1–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4: Result & Stats

Niva

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

7/2/2023

1. Division · Round 14Stadyen Niva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Niva50%

×Draw22%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 428%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NivaExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.43

Niva

1.96

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.43

Niva creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 54 away

2.05

creates per match

1.31

1.54

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Niva

2.05

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.31

allows per match

Niva

1.54

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niva+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niva ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Niva or draw

72%

Niva or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

78%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

50%

Winning margin

Niva wins by 2+

28%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Niva 1+ goals

86%

Niva 2+ goals

58%

Niva 3+ goals

31%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

76%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

42%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Niva (draw refunded)

64%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niva at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niva attack 2.05 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.96

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.31 + Niva defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Niva scores more

50%

level

22%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

28%

Niva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Niva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff