Niva 3–3 Bumprom: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Niva

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bumprom

A. Kuratnik 69'

D. Lesnyak 60'

D. Mulkevich 33'

D. Khalimonchikov 53'

D. Makaev 18'

A. Miroevskiy 12'

5/11/2024

1. Division · Round 6Stadyen Niva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Niva45%

×Draw23%

Bumprom31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NivaExpected goals in this matchBumprom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.41

Niva

1.74

Bumprom

1.41

Niva creates 23% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

2.05

creates per match

1.27

1.54

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Niva

2.05

Bumprom

1.27

allows per match

Niva

1.54

Bumprom

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niva+0.00on par

Bumprom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niva ↓

Bumprom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Niva or draw

69%

Niva or Bumprom

77%

Draw or Bumprom

55%

Winning margin

Niva wins by 2+

24%

Bumprom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Niva 1+ goals

82%

Niva 2+ goals

52%

Niva 3+ goals

25%

Bumprom 1+ goals

76%

Bumprom 2+ goals

41%

Bumprom 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Niva (draw refunded)

59%

Bumprom (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niva at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

Bumprom away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niva attack 2.05 + Bumprom defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.74

Bumprom attack 1.27 + Niva defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Niva scores more

45%

level

23%

Bumprom scores more

31%

Niva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Niva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

18'

26'

29'

33'

33'

46'

D. Vorobyev← A. Zhevnerenko

53'

D. Khalimonchikov

55'

V. Starostin

57'

A. Fisyuk← V. Starostin

60'

65'

69'

83'

83'

V. Drapeza← D. Khalimonchikov

83'

V. Dubrovskiy← A. Miroevskiy

87'

D. Chizh← A. Kuratnik

87'

E. Yushchenko← P. Pampukha

90+4'

D. Lesnyak

Niva

Bumprom

▼

⚽

▼

Miroevski

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Kuratnik

⚽

Lesnyak

Manager: A. Prokopyuk

57'▲A. Fisyuk←▼V. Starostin

87'▲D. Chizh←▼A. Kuratnik

87'▲E. Yushchenko←▼P. Pampukha

Niva substitutes

FisyukChizhYushchenkoMeshchaninovDobrodeyDruchikDybinIgnatovskiy

Manager: A. Kravchenko

29'▲K. Elagin←▼S. Slepov

46'▲D. Vorobyev←▼A. Zhevnerenko

83'▲M. Sanets←▼D. Makaev

83'▲V. Drapeza←▼D. Khalimonchikov

83'▲V. Dubrovskiy←▼A. Miroevskiy

Bumprom substitutes

ElaginVorobyevSanetsDrapezaDubrovskiyKovalevSimonchikPyatigoretsZakrevskiy

Match Recap: Niva vs Bumprom

Niva and Bumprom drew 3-3 in 1. Division on May 11, 2024.

Goals: A. Miroevskiy (12'), D. Makaev (18'), D. Mulkevich (33'), D. Khalimonchikov (53'), D. Lesnyak (60'), A. Kuratnik (69').

The match was played at Stadyen Niva in Dolbizno.

Niva vs Bumprom — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Niva vs Bumprom